The Great Groundhog Gamble

Will Punxsutawney Phil see his shadow on February 2nd, 2025?

No = Early Spring

Yes = Six More Weeks of Winter

Punxsutawney Phil is a “semi-mythical groundhog” that has been predicting the weather in Western Pennsylvania for over 100 years. Venmo your wager to @local-mountain-brian with a message like “No Shadow“, “Yes Shadow“, or “Canceled Due to War.” After I receive your Venmo, I will post your bet on this Google Doc right here with the rest of them.

Winners will receive a weighted return, based on the wager’s percentage of your team’s total contribution. For instance, if you put up half of the money for Team Shadow, and Phil sees his shadow, you will get your money back, plus half of the total wagered by those who bet on No Shadow and Cancelled Due to War.

Here are the stats:

  • Shadow: 107 times
  • No Shadow: 20 times
  • Canceled due to war: 1.5 times
  • 2024 Result = No Shadow

Additional things to consider:

  • Punxsutawney Phil has only predicted an early spring in two consecutive years once before, 2019 and 2020.
  • In March 2024, Punxsutawney Phil and mate Phyllis welcomed two newborn chucklings, a girl and a boy, named Sunny and Shadow.
  • Chevy Chase, Tom Hanks, and Michael Keaton were also considered for Bill Murray’s role as Phil Connors in Groundhog Day (1993).